Search results for "HYDROLOGICAL MODELS"
showing 6 items of 6 documents
Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales
2020
Summarization: The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events co…
Comparison of SWAP and FAO Agro-Hydrological Models to Schedule Irrigation of Wine Grapes
2012
This paper compares two agro-hydrological models that are used to schedule irrigation of a typical Mediterranean crop. In particular, a comparison between the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) model, which uses a black box approach, and the soil-water-atmosphere-plant (SWAP) model, which is based on the numerical analysis of Richards' equation, are shown for wine grape. The comparison was carried out for the 2005 and 2006 irrigation seasons and focused on hydrological balance components and on soil water contents. Next, the ordinary scheduling parameters were identified so that the performance of the two models, which aimed to evaluate the seasonal water requirements and the irrigatio…
Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
2018
Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and anessential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties thatare impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing arange of independent global monthly land ET estimates with historical model simulations from theglobal water, agriculture, and biomes sectors participating in the second phase of the Inter-SectoralImpact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Among the independent estimates, we use theEartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset …
Approximate Bayesian Computation for Forecasting in Hydrological models
2018
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical tool for handling parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, mostly characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the application of ABC to hydrological models, not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a mechanism for generating probabilistic forecasts. This mechanism is referred as Approximate Bayesian Forecasting (ABF). The abcd water balance model is applied to a case study on Aipe river basin in Columbia to demonstrate the applicability of ABF. The predictivity of the ABF is compared with the predictivity of the MCMC algorithm. The results show that the ABF method as …
Agro-hydrological models to schedule irrigation of Mediterranean tree crops
2010
In this paper a comparison between two agro-hydrological models, used to schedule irrigation of typical Mediterranean tree crops, is assessed. In particular the comparison between the model proposed by FAO, using a black box processes schematization, and the SWAP model based on the numerical analysis of Richards’ equation is initially presented for two irrigation seasons, 2005 and 2006, and two Mediterranean tree crops, i.e. grapevine (Vitis vinifera, L.) and olive oil (Olea europea, L.). The comparison mainly focuses on hydrological balance components and on soil water contents. After investigating and setting the scheduling parameters ordinarily practiced by the framers in the area (i.e o…
Effects of climate and land use changes on runoff extremes
2017
The analysis of the hydrological changes and their interacting triggering factors are objectives defined within the Panta Rhei decade 2013-2022. Climate change and urbanization are among the most recurrent causes for hydrological changes at the global level. This work proposes a modeling framework for the analysis of the alterations in the watershed hydrological response and, more specifically, in runoff extremes, induced by such perturbations. A weather generator and a cellular automata land-use change model are used to generate hypothetical scenarios accounting for relevant trends at the global level. Such scenarios are successively considered to force a physically-based and spatial-distr…